The last weekend before the Fed makes their most important decision of the last five years

It is now less than six days before the Fed will announce perhaps its most important decision of the last five years… whether to raise interest rates or keep rates where they are.  And while analysts have been making predictions on this potentially game changing event, very few actually know what the results will be because whichever choice is made will have detrimental consequences for the economy.

What has really been the catalyst for the divergence in the Fed simply jawboning that they will raise rates for nearly a year is the fact that nearly all economic data points have been either manipulated or reported as outright lies which have skewed the belief that the economy is in recovery and strong enough to stand on its own if interest rates began to rise.  And for all the propaganda behind consumer spending, unemployment, gdp, and corporate earnings being ‘very good’ as the wombats on CNBC promote each and every day, the U.S. central bank has to know the truth behind all of these ponzi schemes and it makes acting in accordance to their own rhetoric very difficult when the reality of the data is both in opposition to their words, and in some cases even worse than before 2008.

UMich Consumer Confidence Tumbles To 12-Month Lows With Biggest Miss On Record

Having fallen and missed the last two months, UMich Consumer Sentiment plunged in September’s preliminary data from 91.9 to 85.7 (dramatically missing the 91.1 expectations) crashing to its lowest in a year. This is the biggest miss on record. Crucially, this is the all-important factor that The Fed’s Dudley said he would be monitoring ahead of his decision on rate hikes… Hope collapsed as “expectations” tumbled from 83.4 to 76.4 – the lowest in  a year as 73% of respondents cited negative economic developments seeing a weaker econmomy due to a global growth slowdown.

confidence report

Last Economic Data Point The Fed Sees Ahead Of Rate Hike Decision Is Set To Tumble

Earlier today, Bank of America confirmed just that using its internal data, which tracks aggregate spending on credit and debit
cards, showing that consumers reduced spending in August.

And they reduced it substantially: According to the Bank, while the drop was not as pronounced as what Gallup reported (which saw average daily spending slide from $91/day to $89/day), it was still enough to dramatically impact the economy: “our headline measure, retail sales ex-autos, plunged 0.8% mom seasonally adjusted.”

consumer spending

And then we get what has been the norm for economic data since last October… a report that contradicts another report on the same indicator.

Fed Rate Hike Odds Rise After Hotter-Than-Expected Producer Price Data

While still well below Fed mandated levels, the 0.9% year-over-year rise in PPI Final Demand ex Food & Energy is the hottest since March and notably above expectations. While the headline PPI Final Demand YoY has not risen for 8 months, surging prices for chicken eggs (+23%) and apparel (+7%) in August made up a considerable part of the inflation index move and bond yields and stocks are leaking lower on the news ahead of next week’s FOMC meeting.

So which data is accurate, and better yet, which data is relevant to the Fed’s choosing to raise interest rates next week?

The answer may actually be… none of these.

The U.S. gross federal debt currently stands at $17.548 trillion, and net interest payments to our creditors are the fastest-growing item in the budget. In 2014, the Congressional Budget Office projects that the nation will spend $233 billion on interest payments. By the end of the budget window in 2024, however, CBO forecasts that interest payments will nearly quadruple to an astonishing $880 billion. Every dollar spent paying our creditors is a dollar wasted—money for which we get nothing in return. Interest payments threaten to crowd out every other budget item. – Mises Institute, Canada

Interest-on-national-debt

And this is just the consequences raising interest rates will have to the government budget, and does not take into consideration maturing Treasury debt, or the trillions in derivatives tied to interest rate affected securities.

So will the Fed destroy their long standing mantra that the economy in the U.S. is ‘very good’, or will they willingly set in motion the next collapse by increasing the cost of money which has its tentacles into tens if not hundreds of trillions of dollars worthy of outstanding debt?

My guess is that they won’t raise rates… not next week, nor forever.  And if they are intelligent enough to look at the true data versus their manipulated propaganda, they will have little choice but to crank up the printing presses very soon and usher in what Dr. Jim Willie calls, QE to infinity squared.

Kenneth Schortgen Jr is a writer for Secretsofthefed.comExaminer.com, Roguemoney.net, and To the Death Media, and hosts the popular web blog, The Daily Economist. Ken can also be heard Wednesday afternoons giving an weekly economic report on the Angel Clark radio show.

HERE IS A LIST OF EVERY SINGLE TIME OBAMA COMMITTED AN IMPEACHABLE OFFENSE THAT DEMS & MEDIA COVERED UP “Impeach!” It’s been more than eight years since Democrats uttered that word – long enough for anyone to wonder if it was still in their vocabulary, considering the deafening silence through the dozens of serious scandals during President Obama’s administration – but now that President Trump is the man in the White House, it’s back with a vengeance. . . Democrats everywhere are wildly slinging the “I” word, hoping to nail Trump for high crimes and misdemeanors after the New York Times claimed a memo written by former FBI Director James Comey said the president urged him to end the federal investigation into former national security adviser Michael Flynn. . . Some members of Congress are getting in on the action. They include Reps. Maxine Water, D-Calif., and Al Green, D-Texas. Even a Republican, Rep. Justin Amash, claimed Wednesday there are grounds to impeach President Trump. House Oversign Committee Chair Rep. Jason Chaffetz, R-Utah, asked for the alleged Comey memo and other documents. Chaffetz tweeted that he is prepared to subpoena the information. And Sen. John McCain, R-Ariz., invoked “Watergate.” . . Now the Democratic Party is reportedly poll testing impeachment as a 2018 election issue. More than 1 million people signed a petition calling on Congress to impeach Trump. . . Wasting no time Wednesday, the mainstream media sprang into action, enthusiastically echoing the left’s impeachment calls. MSNBC launched a Watergate ad implying Trump is America’s new Richard Nixon. . . “Watergate. We know its name because there were reporters who never stopped asking questions,” says MSNBC host Chris Hayes, who hinted that Trump is next on the impeachment chopping block. “Now, who knows where the questions will take us. But I know this: I’m not going to stop asking them.” . . Meanwhile, some overzealous members of the left plastered fliers around Washington, D.C., demanding all White House staffers resign Wednesday. . . The posters read: “If you work for this White House you are complicit in hate-mongering, lies, corrupt taking of Americans’ tax money via self-dealing and emoluments, and quite possibly federal crimes and treason. Also, any wars will be on your soul. … Resign now.” . . But constitutional scholar Jonathan Turley, who voted for President Obama, warned “impeachment” enthusiasts not to get ahead of themselves with President Trump. Why? . . At this time, there’s no evidence Trump actually committed a crime. . . “The criminal code demands more than what Comey reportedly describes in his memo,” Turley wrote in a May 17 opinion piece posted at the Hill. Turley explained: . . For the first time, the Comey memo pushes the litany of controversies surrounding Trump into the scope of the United States criminal code. . . However, if this is food for obstruction of justice, it is still an awfully thin soup. Some commentators seem to be alleging criminal conduct in office or calling for impeachment before Trump completed the words of his inaugural oath of office. Not surprising, within minutes of the New York Times report, the response was a chorus of breathless “gotcha” announcements. But this memo is neither the Pentagon Papers nor the Watergate tapes. Indeed, it raises as many questions for Comey as it does Trump in terms of the alleged underlying conduct. . . A good place to start would be with the federal law, specifically 18 U.S.C. 1503. The criminal code demands more than what Comey reportedly describes in his memo. There are dozens of different variations of obstruction charges ranging from threatening witnesses to influencing jurors. None would fit this case. That leaves the omnibus provision on attempts to interfere with the “due administration of justice.” . . However, that still leaves the need to show that the effort was to influence “corruptly” when Trump could say that he did little but express concern for a longtime associate. The term “corruptly” is actually defined differently under the various obstruction provisions, but it often involves a showing that someone acted “with the intent to secure an unlawful benefit for oneself or another.” Encouraging leniency or advocating for an associate is improper but not necessarily seeking an unlawful benefit for him. . . -Obama’s Iran nuke deal -Obama knew about Hillary’s private email server -Obama IRS targets conservatives -Obama’s DOJ spies on AP reporters -Obamacare & Obama’s false promises -Illegal-alien amnesty by executive order -Benghazi-gate -Operation Fast & Furious -5 Taliban leaders for Bergdahl -Extortion 17 -‘Recess ‘ appointments – when Senate was in session -Appointment of ‘czars’ without Senate approval -Suing Arizona for enforcing federal law -Refusal to defend Defense of Marriage Act -Illegally conducting war against Libya -NSA: Spying on Americans -Muslim Brotherhood ties -Miriam Carey -Birth certificate -Executive orders -Solyndra and the lost $535 million -Egypt -Cap & Trade: When in doubt, bypass Congress -Refusal to prosecute New Black Panthers -Obama’s U.S. citizen ‘hit list’